About - Bets - One Sided Predictions - FAQ

One Sided Bets

Eric Horvitz (Received 2019 August 18)

To help stimulate more participation in AI bets, former AAAI president Eric Horvitz contributed the following predictions as one-sided bets. All readers are encouraged to take him on! Challenge one of these predictions and learn something in the process of turning the prediction into something adjuticatable.

Laws will require AI systems that emulate humans to reveal themselves. By 2025, laws will be in place in some parts of the world requiring that systems must reveal to people the use of AI in pure and hybrid (human in the loop) AI systems that emulate humans.

Artists will certify that their art has been created by humans. By 2035, a wave of artwork, including painting, poetry, and music, mostly or wholly created by AI systems, will lead some artists to certify that their creations have been created by humans without significant AI assistance.

EU or US laws will regulate face recognition for surveillance. By 2025, the use of face recognition for broad surveillance will come under regulatory guidance in the United States or Europe, limiting uses of face recognition by governments for general, large-scale detection of people.

Laws will require self-driving cars to share performance and safety data. By 2030, some countries will require that manufacturers share data from semiautonomous and autonomous vehicles on performance and accidents, akin to the NTSB in the United States for air transport.

A self-driving car will cross the continental United States. By 2025, the first car to cross the United States without human intervention will be celebrated.

There will be roads closed to human drivers. By 2030, at least one city in the world will close a region to all human-piloted vehicles and employ a mix of autonomous cars, including large-scale public microtransit systems.

Governments will start to build road infrastructure for self-driving cars. By 2035, in numerous regions in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere, specially designed signaling and related infrastructure will be deployed that allow semiautonomous vehicles to be reliably autonomous for long stretches of highway. Special “hyperlanes” will be created in places that allow for high-speed coordinated travel.